The attitude illusion: why changing minds is not enough for sustainable travel behaviour

By Milad Mehdizadeh,

For decades, the standard playbook for encouraging sustainable travel has been: change the attitude, and the behaviour will follow. We have relied on ’soft‘ measures, like awareness campaigns and pro-environmental messaging, to nudge people out of their cars and onto bikes or buses. However, our research suggests we might be looking at the problem backward.

Our recent paper, published in Transport Reviews, demonstrates how looking at snapshots of data rather than tracking people over time can lead researchers to overestimate how much attitudes actually drive actions. You can read the paper here: Cross-sectional illusions: what we have learned about the attitude-behaviour relationship and its policy implications

The snapshot trap

Most travel behaviour studies are ‘cross-sectional’, meaning they capture a single moment in time. These studies often show a strong link between what people think and how they travel. But when researchers use panel data, tracking the same individuals over several years, a different story emerges:

• Attitudes are weak predictors: the actual effect of attitudes on future behaviour is smaller than snapshot studies suggest.
• Behaviour shapes the mind: it is not just that attitudes drive behaviour; behaviour often drives attitudes. People often adjust their opinions to match what they are already doing to reduce cognitive dissonance.
• The power of habit: The strongest predictor of what someone will do tomorrow is what they did yesterday, not what they say they intend to do.

Behaviour first, attitudes second

One of the paper’s most significant findings for practitioners is that travel behaviour is more a function of past behaviours than deliberate, planned action. Interestingly, when people are forced to change their behaviour due to external factors, like a new congestion charge or a major event, their attitudes often shift after the experience. For example, someone might realise that using public transport is not as bad as they thought only after a policy change forces them to try it.

Key takeaways for policymakers

If we want to reduce car dependency, relying solely on soft measures (like incentives or campaigns) is likely overly optimistic. Instead, the research suggests a shift in focus:

• Prioritize ‘push’ measures: policies that directly change behaviour, such as establishing pedestrian zones, implementing congestion pricing, or reducing parking, are more effective at breaking deep-seated habits.
• Disrupt the habit: since behaviour is remarkably stable over time, interventions should focus on habit disruption and structural changes rather than just winning hearts and minds.
• Expect a lag: changing travel culture takes time. Direct behavioural changes can gradually reshape public attitudes over the long term as people experience the benefits of new systems.

The bottom line

To move the needle on sustainable transport, we need to stop waiting for people to change their minds before we change the streets. Actions do not just follow attitudes, they create them.